Crop Diversification in Pakistan: Province-Wise Temporal Analysis

Abstract

This study assess the extent and nature of crop diversification across Pakistan’s provinces using the Herfindahl Index (HI) and Composite Entropy Index (CEI) for 1990-91 to 2020-21 with decadal intervals: 1990–91, 2000–01, 2010–11, and 2020–21. Result showed national decline in extent of crop diversification by 2020-21 indicating a trend towards specialization. Punjab diversification decreased until 2010-11 but rose slightly in 2020-21. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province showed continuous decline over period of study, while Sindh and Balochistan increased crop diversification 1990-91 to 2010-11 followed by a minor drop in diversification showing movements towards specialization. Composite Entropy Index (CEI) was worked out to gauge the nature of crop diversification. CEI result revealed reduced cereal diversification until 2010–11 and a slight recovery in 2020–21, with cereals’ share in gross cropped area increasing overall in Pakistan. In 2020–21, CEI was highest for oilseeds (0.695) and lowest for pulses (0.332). The results demonstrated decreased in diversification throughout the study period at Pakistan level. No specific pattern of diversification was observed in case of cash crops in Pakistan. Punjab province showed greater diversification in cereals, oilseeds, and horticultural crops; Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in pulses; and Balochistan in fruits and vegetables. The findings highlight potential to enhance crop diversity, emphasizing the need for field-level research and supportive policies to improve farm income and agricultural growth.