Yield maximization and Adaptation of Optimal Cropping Pattern; Option for Gilgit Valley in GB

Abstract

Choosing the right crops to grow in a certain agricultural region has been a long standing and mostly an empirical challenge for food security. The assessment of the potential and suitability of agricultural crops for present and the future food production requires the evaluation using analytical and optimization approaches. Food security and rural development depends on the suitable growth of the agricultural industry. The main objectives of the study were to develop linear programming model through the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS) program for assessing the optimally crops yield, which would lead to optimal cropping pattern, maximize income from crop production and explore investment opportunities through analyzing the effects of additional capital on cropping yield and income of the farmers. The study was carried out in the district Gilgit. Linear Programming Model was applied to calculate the crop acreage, production and income of the crops. Crops included in the model were wheat and potato. The growers of the major crops were the targeted population and random sampling technique is used to select the sample. Two stage sampling techniques are applied for collecting data. In the first stage the farmers of the study area are divided into two groups; the potato growers and the wheat growers and in the second stage randomly 100 farmers (50 farmers from each group) are interviewed for the study and questionnaires are filled on the spot.  Self-made questionnaires, filled through interviewed process from the random selected farmers were used as a tool for collecting primary data. The raw data is tabulated and analyzed using Microsoft Excel. The analyzed data is used to develop the mathematical model. Simplex method is applied to find the optimal solution of the model, which showed 11% increase in the net revenue per year. LP is a superior and suitable model for use in any decision making situation because of its highly appreciated results. So it is strongly recommended for putting the suggestions of linear programming model into practice in their daily life to get maximum advantage from available resource with lowest expenses.